Ideas from mikehd25 and some of my number crunching

after read mike’s post here, I tried to came up with my own crunching, so here it is:

(This is only for GOOG, which is the only part in question)

From google’s IR website, I’m taking “revenues” from Q4’11, and “Google revenues” from Q1’12, Q2’12 and Q3’12 to come up with revenue base:

10584+10645+10964+11526 = 43719M

Google’s revenue from international source is: 53%, 54%, 53%, 50% respectively, I’ll use 53% here. so Google’s US revenue = 43719M*47%=20547.93M

Vringo’s claim is 3.5% of 20% of Google’s US revenue, so the claimed damage should be:

20547.93M*20%*3.5% = 143.83551M

And, if we apply that 35% like every other defendant, you get:

143.83551M*35% = 50.3424285M

So yeah, it’s not like what Mike claimed, 158M, but it’s still much higher than the 15.8M in the verdict. Basically I don’t quite get understand where Mike came up with the revenue base, my guess would be that he considered global revenue when only US revenue should be considered.

Please let me know if you have any comments/opinions.


Posted in Stock Tagged with: , ,
2 comments on “Ideas from mikehd25 and some of my number crunching
  1. vpg999 says:

    this math doesn’t make any sense, the number is 35% of the damages to get to $158MM, the Judge will correct tomorrow and VRNG will be $10+ while VHC is flying

    • hxdai320 says:

      The number in Mike’s post comes from Becker’s damage slides, I came up with my own version. Things might be different. I’m long and while I hope you are right, I stand by my calculation. In Becker’s slides my guess is that he included global revenue, which judge asked him to revise I believe.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *