Oh well. VRNG. enough said. Easily the worst Halloween I have ever had. Probably won’t have a worse one for rest of my life. I admit I fucked up this time. Greed got the best of me. Guess I was still overhyped on the ARNA win.
Based on my DD, I don’t believe this reflects (gulping cap n’ coke) what’s going on. Ok, we were talking about damages for 2006-now, which is somewhere around 500M give or take. With today’s ruling, let’s try some napkin math:
According to IB’s data, GOOG’s rev starting Q4-11(Oct-1 to Dec-31) is: 10583M, 10645M, 12214M and 14101M. That totals 47543M. Say half of that is US advertisement-related (http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html), that’s 23771.5M. VRNG is claiming 20% of this is generated using their patent, that gives the rev base in question at 4754.3M. Let’s go low end and give it a 1.5% royalty, That ends up being ~71.3M. VRNG’s market cap is 149M according to IB, so with only back damage, and NO future royalty, VRNG’s PPS should be at 3.8ish. If getting 3.5% royalty though, that should give VRNG a 5.4 price tag. Again, we ALL know that this is based on IF(another gulp of cap n’ coke) jury finds GOOG infringing. People say it’s highly likely, but people have been saying 500M damage is a sure thing.
(gulp of cap n’ coke)
GLTA, I guess I need to gulp some cap and no coke…